MLB Model Validation — June 2026 Research Summary
MLB Model Validation — June 2026 Research Summary
> Signal Syndicate Research Library · Model Validation · Educational intelligence · Not betting advice
This memo consolidates June 2026 MLB quant evidence for the Performance page and Research Library. Figures are historical estimates from graded research samples — not live P&L.
What the public board shows (ROUTE_B)
The Signal Board (Platform Sprint 4) displays v1 broad totals under ROUTE_B:
| Rule | Behavior | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | Team/Pitcher v1 broad totals scan | ||
| Edge cap | Plays with \ | model_edge\ | > **2.5 runs** excluded from public payload |
| Confidence | Edge **magnitude**, not win probability | ||
| P43 shadow | **Not** on the board |
June 2026 research sample
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Capped plays (Route B) | **105** |
| Win rate | **50.48%** |
| ROI | **−3.64%** |
| Archive context | 19 June slates · 177 uncapped graded plays in archive |
The cap exists because uncapped strong-edge rows showed negative ROI in shadow analysis — removing the tail is a trust fix, not a performance claim.
Shadow lane: P43 summer UNDER
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Status | **MONITOR ONLY** |
| OOS bets | **18** (minimum for promotion review: **75**) |
| ROI | **−4.55%** |
| On public board | **No** |
After as-of backfill expanded OOS density, ROI weakened — a textbook small-sample trap cleared by more data, not strengthened.
Shadow lane: Hits props V1 / V1.3
Forward OOS testing (730 Odds credits, 10 slates × 2025 + 2026) completed in June 2026:
| Year | V1 ROI @ edge 0.3 | n (edge-filtered) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 pilot | **+5.22%** | 1,504 | Baseline only |
| **2025 OOS** | **−22.79%** | 1,073 | Sign flip — do not promote |
| **2026 OOS** | **+9.87%** | 1,284 | Monitor — early-June slates only |
V1.3 (85/15 Phase D blend) tied V1 on 2025/2026 because Phase D batter cache was not refreshed for new seasons. No Signal Board wiring.
Total hits lane credits: 1,120 (390 pilot + 730 OOS).
K props — RETIRED
The pitcher strikeouts props lane is RETIRED. Do not spend Odds credits on K. See: Why We Retired K Props (May–Jul).
CLV — what we track and why
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether a bet beat the market close — a process metric, not win rate.
Live CLV series for shadow lanes is not yet populated (insufficient closing-line pairs). We ship methodology + education until 30+ graded plays with closing lines exist.
Read: CLV Validation Study Memo.
Promotion gates (unchanged)
1. 75 OOS shadow bets minimum before promotion review
2. Walk-forward / sign-flip discipline
3. Multi-AI courtroom + founder sign-off
4. No `config.py` production changes without explicit YES
What this means for readers
- Performance page shows research validation across years and shadow lanes — not picks.
- Negative ROI on capped Route B June sample is reported honestly.
- Hits 2024 positive did not survive 2025 OOS — why forward testing matters.
Research only · estimates only · not betting advice.