Signal Syndicate Performance Ledger
Live settlement tracking · updated daily after settlement (≈09:30 UTC)🟢 Hero = LIVE models only (1644 graded). Combined all-models ledger incl. shadow: 1050-575-19 · +4.68u — shadow tracked in its own cards below.
Cumulative units equity curve (live models)
Active Models
Shadow & Research Lanes
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.
Why some lanes publish nothing: MLB Totals UNDER has produced zero promoted signals since 2026-07-27 — its edge cap filters every candidate out, and we would rather publish silence than noise. A shadow lane earns promotion only through backtest, holdout, and forward-shadow gates (see the August 2026 methodology in the Research Library). Silence is a result, not a gap.
View Full Performance Dashboard →Performance by Period
The same settled ledger broken down by year, month, week, and day. Every figure is computed from the append-only pick history — no cherry-picking.
2026 · By Model
| Period | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run Lines | 125-76-1 | 62.2% | +17.87% | +36.09u | 202 |
| Hits Props OVER | 216-155-0 | 58.2% | -9.34% | -34.65u | 371 |
| Hits Props UNDER | 645-288-0 | 69.1% | +0.12% | +1.12u | 933 |
| MLB Totals UNDER | 12-3-2 | 80.0% | +46.52% | +7.91u | 17 |
| F5 Innings | 40-37-0 | 51.9% | -0.83% | -0.64u | 77 |
| NFL Spreads | 6-8-5 | 42.9% | -13.65% | -2.59u | 19 |
| NFL Totals | 6-8-11 | 42.9% | -10.18% | -2.55u | 25 |
| Portfolio (all models) | 1050-575-19 | 64.6% | +0.28% | +4.68u | 1644 |
2026 · Monthly
| Period | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07 | 42-25-3 | 62.7% | +16.41% | +11.49u | 70 |
| 2026-08 | 458-243-0 | 65.3% | +3.70% | +25.92u | 701 |
| 2026-09 | 550-307-16 | 64.2% | -3.75% | -32.72u | 873 |
2026 · Weekly (recent)
| Period | W-L-P | Win % | ROI | Units | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-W39 | 106-71-15 | 59.9% | -10.36% | -19.89u | 192 |
| 2026-W38 | 178-87-0 | 67.2% | +1.52% | +4.03u | 265 |
| 2026-W37 | 129-74-1 | 63.5% | -5.02% | -10.24u | 204 |
| 2026-W36 | 164-81-0 | 66.9% | +0.37% | +0.91u | 245 |
| 2026-W35 | 116-65-0 | 64.1% | -1.12% | -2.03u | 181 |
| 2026-W34 | 159-88-0 | 64.4% | -4.04% | -9.99u | 247 |
Daily Ledger · Last 7 Settled Days
Methodology & Transparency
- Every settled pick is recorded in a public, append-only ledger and graded WIN / LOSS / PUSH at 1.0u staked at the real market odds we posted at entry — never flat -110 assumptions.
- Models are promoted only after passing backtest → holdout → shadow forward validation. Shadow lanes are shown but clearly labelled.
- Retired lanes (K Props, Run Lines home/all underdogs, Totals OVER, unfiltered Hits Props) are excluded from this page entirely.
- Player projections are scored like a quant desk, not a tout: bias ≈ 0, level ratio ≈ 1.0, error vs naive baselines, and alpha vs the market line — directional-vs-season vanity metrics are retired. See the August 2026 Projection Audit and why we killed directional accuracy.
- Validation is walk-forward with a frozen holdout (weights chosen on past data only, scored once on unseen data); errors are block-bootstrapped by game-day. Full protocol in the Research Library.
Research validation only — not live P&L, not betting advice. Expected monthly volatility ±5%; short-term drawdowns are within normal range.