MLB Totals Validation — What the Backtest Actually Shows

This report explains how Signal Syndicate frames MLB totals research in the demo — with explicit limits.

Dataset scope

The mock dashboard references 504 validated totals rows across 61 historical slates. Figures are illustrative of research methodology, not live picks.

How to read a signal card

Each card shows:

1. Model projection vs market line (gap)
2. Confidence band (internal estimate — not win probability)
3. Backtest grade on the row (including losses)

Showing losses is intentional. Trust compounds when users see calibration misses. The lane's promotion bar is documented in the 75-bet gate.

What we do not claim

• Guaranteed outcomes or locks
• Sportsbook-confirmed closing line value in the demo
• Live individualized props feed (Phase 2)

Next steps for readers

Use Ask Signal for plain-English questions. Use Performance → Trust for calibration tables (demo).

Research only · estimates only · not betting advice.