Kelly sizing guide
The Kelly criterion answers one question: what fraction of a bankroll does a given edge justify? We show a quarter of it, capped at 2% of bankroll, because full Kelly assumes your probability is exactly right — and it never is. This is a sizing guide, not a suggestion to bet: if the guide reads 0u, the price is the problem, and no stake fixes it.
Result
Break-even win rate at your price: — · fair American price of your probability: —
Worked example, from the house ledger: a hits-prop probability of 58.5% at −130
breaks even at 56.5% — a ~3.5% edge, full Kelly ≈ 4.5% of bankroll, so the ¼-Kelly guide lands near 1.1%
(capped well under 2%). The same 58.5% at −170 breaks even at 63.0%: edge negative, guide 0u.
Same probability, different price, opposite answer — the whole platform in one line.
Where does the probability come from? On the platform it is the model's own view restated per lane — see the CLV calculator to grade what you were actually offered, and the published ledger for the graded record.
Want this applied to tonight's graded research? Every number on the live board traces to the published ledger.See this on the board →