Analyst Report — Weekly · Aug 30, 2026

71 signals graded, 43-28-0 record, -0.15% ROI, -0.11u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> Ledger summary

The Context

The week's slate produced 71 graded active signals, split between Hits Props OVER and Run Lines. The active portfolio went 43-28-0, a 60.6% win rate, and returned -0.11 units / -0.15% ROI. That is the core tension: we won more often than we lost, but the odds structure did not pay for it.

We were also tracking two shadow models: F5 Innings and Hits Props UNDER. Those are not in the portfolio P&L, but they inform future decisions. F5 Innings went 7-6-0 and returned +0.36u. Hits Props UNDER went 66-31-0, a 68.0% win rate, yet lost -2.28u on shadow pricing. The slate was full MLB regular-season action, with run-line dogs and low total props represented.

How It Played Out

The active book was carried by Run Lines. That model went 11-5-0, 68.8% win rate, +23.22% ROI, +3.72u. The best result of the week came here: Dodgers @ Braves, DOG +1.5, +1.88u. Without that model, the week would have been negative.

Hits Props OVER was the primary drag. It went 32-23-0, 58.2% win rate, and lost -3.83u at -6.96% ROI. We won at a high clip and still bled units. The best OVER result—Otto Lopez OVER 0.5 hits—added +0.91u, but the Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 loss cost -1.00u, and the aggregate was poor.

Shadow results were mixed. F5 Innings had a positive week: +0.36u, best result Red Sox @ Marlins UNDER 4.0 (+0.91u), worst a -1.00u loss on Rangers @ White Sox UNDER 4.5. Hits Props UNDER won 68.0% of signals but lost -2.28u overall. The best UNDER, Ke'Bryan Hayes UNDER 0.5, returned +1.12u; Daylen Lile UNDER 1.5 cost -1.00u.

The daily swings were significant. August 28 produced a -9.91u swing. August 25 was +9.16u. August 29 was -2.80u. Even a near-breakeven week had high daily volatility.

What Surprised Us

Run Lines, not Hits Props, was the strongest active model. The +23.22% ROI on a 68.8% win rate is not typical for favorite-heavy pricing, and it buoyed the week.

The bigger surprise: Hits Props OVER won 58.2% of signals and still lost nearly 4 units. That suggests our projection edges were being absorbed by market pricing—we were identifying winners, but not value. Correlation across signals likely contributed; a bad team-wide hitting night can drag multiple OVER bets down together. Where a win rate and the P&L disagree, the gap is the story — that is what closing line value measures, and it is the first place we look.

Hits Props UNDER's shadow result reinforces that. A 68.0% win rate with negative ROI suggests the line setters had the hit totals tight. High win rates without positive ROI may indicate that our edge is being mitigated by pricing.

The Aug 28 -9.91u swing also stands out. It shows the portfolio's daily variance is larger than the weekly net suggests. We cannot treat near-zero weekly P&L as low-risk.

Model Report Card

• F5 Innings (shadow): 7-6-0, +0.36u.
• Hits Props OVER (active): 32-23-0, 58.2% wins, -6.96% ROI, -3.83u.
• Hits Props UNDER (shadow): 66-31-0, 68.0% wins, -2.28u.
• Run Lines (active): 11-5-0, 68.8% wins, +23.22% ROI, +3.72u.

Bottom Line

The record was strong, but the economics were not. Run Lines showed edge; Hits Props OVER did not, despite the win rate. We are re-scoping the OVER model around pricing thresholds and correlation risk, and keeping F5 and UNDER in shadow until their ROI justifies promotion.

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.