Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 20, 2026

2 signals graded, 0-2-0 record, -100.00% ROI, -2.00u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 0-2-0 · -2.00u · -100.0% ROI — 2 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-19. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

2 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Saturday brought a loss on the live run-line³ book. Both signals — Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 at the Mets and Detroit Tigers +1.5 at the White Sox — failed to cover. The model misfired and we took the full two-unit loss. The closing line value¹ showed a median CLV of +46% and a mean of +46% on a two-signal sample. We bought well below where the market settled, but the results did not follow. Seven-day CLV on run lines sits at median +0.43%, mean +12.17% — the process is holding, even when results sting.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money, and yesterday it carried the load. Hits props⁴ OVER went 9-3, returned 0.73 units. Hits props UNDER posted 17-7, added 0.10 units. F5 Innings⁵ ran 3-1, grabbed 1.73 units with the Seattle-Colorado OVER delivering the strongest return at +0.91 units. The Miami-San Diego UNDER absorbed the only F5 loss at -1.00 unit. Shadow CLV yesterday ran negative across the prop lanes — median -4.06% on UNDER, median -51.03% on OVER — but the 29-11 aggregate record pulled through regardless. That tension between entry price and outcome is what shadow testing exists to resolve.

The projection engine covered 1360 player lines across 15 games and 272 players. Largest category deltas ran negative: total bases at -0.34, strikeouts at -0.22. The engine is running systematically low in those buckets, and we are tracking the pattern. In practice, this means if you are building a same-game parlay or setting a DFS lineup, the engine's current calibration would have leaned conservative on extra-base output and punchout props yesterday.

Cumulative ledger sits at 903 signals and +16.93 units across all lanes — live and shadow combined. The two-day win streak (by daily net) holds, but the portfolio has given back roughly half its edge over the past week. The live book alone — 187 signals, +32.36 units, +17.30% ROI — remains the sharper subset, which is how the gating structure is designed to work.

Today's Card

Sunday slate runs 15 games. Run lines generated three signals, led by Boston Red Sox +1.5 at Tampa Bay with best price at LowVig.ag (-162). Two additional run-line candidates cleared the Kelly threshold and live on the Signal Board. Hits props OVER produced zero signals today — the price bar held. The projection engine is running 1350 player lines across the full slate, covering the same parlay-builder and DFS infrastructure that processed 272 players yesterday.

What This Means

CLV measures whether we bought before or after the sharp money moved the line. A positive median CLV on run lines — even in a losing day — confirms we are entering ahead of market consensus. The shadow portfolio's negative CLV against winning results is the inverse puzzle: good outcomes despite poor entry timing suggest we may be onto something structural that the closing line has not priced yet, or we are riding variance that will not hold at scale. Either way, the gate is working: only the setups that clear both the model threshold and the price threshold make it to the live book.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.