Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 18, 2026

3 signals graded, 1-2-0 record, -47.67% ROI, -1.43u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-2-0 · -1.43u · -47.67% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-17. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Thursday hurt. Three signals graded, one hit. Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Chicago White Sox lost when the Tigers failed to cover. Kansas City Royals +1.5 at Houston Astros also missed. The lone winner: Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 at New York Mets, which returned 0.57 units at underdog pricing. Net damage: -1.43 units across the trio.

The entry price told a different story than the results. Run Lines¹ posted a median CLV¹ of +3.33% yesterday — the market moved in our direction after we published. Over the last seven days, that median sits at flat (+0.00%), with a mean of +1.80% that reflects a few outlier moves. All-time, the lane carries a median of +0.48% and a mean of +4.99% across 108 signals. The pricing discipline held, even as results lagged.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks. Yesterday it processed 27 signals across five lanes: Hits Props OVER (3-3-0, -1.88u), Hits Props UNDER (11-6-0, -0.75u), and F5 Innings⁵ (1-1-0, -0.09u). The UNDER lane went 11-6 but struggled with pricing — median CLV of -2.63% over seven days, -17.69% mean yesterday. That gap between win rate and price suggests the gate needs work. The projection engine covered 815 player projections across 9 games and 163 players, with the largest average deltas² in total bases (-0.34) and hits (-0.22).

Seven days ago, the cumulative ledger sat at 1090 signals and +37.49 units (3.44% ROI). As of Thursday close: 1314 signals and +15.26 units (1.16% ROI). That's a 22.23-unit drawdown over seven days of activity. Current streak: L1 on daily net.

Today's Card

Friday's slate expands to 15 games. Run Lines generated three signals. The best-priced candidate: Boston Red Sox +1.5 at Tampa Bay Rays, available at +168 on FanDuel. Two additional Kelly-positive run-line candidates live on the Signal Board. The projection engine is tracking 1,350 player projections across the full slate — research built for parlay construction, DFS lineup building, and assessing where the model sees value before first pitch.

What This Means

A -1.43-unit day stings, but the median CLV of +3.33% shows the pricing discipline held. In a three-signal sample, variance swings results. The seven-day trend is a problem — 22 units surrendered while entry price remained competitive. That points to a model accuracy issue, not a market timing problem. Review underway.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.