Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Aug 22, 2026

34 picks graded, 18-16-0 record, -19.94% ROI, -6.78u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

Performance Snapshot

All models incl. shadow · 1103 graded signals · 713-374-16 · +37.49u · Live-promoted: 326 · 202-124-0 · +33.21u · updated at build time (PG)

Cumulative units equity curve (live models)

Cumulative units by model

Run Lines
+40.91u
Hits Props OVER
-19.20u
Hits Props UNDER
+9.24u
MLB Totals UNDER
+7.91u
F5 Innings
-1.37u
NFL Spreads
+0.00u
NFL Totals
+0.00u

Live / Shadow / Total + CLV breakdown

Live models — official book

LIVE 106-59-0 · +37.37u · +22.65% ROI (165 signals, all-time)

Run Lines1-2-0 · -0.34u

Shadow research (excluded from the live book)

Shadow all-time: 607-315-16 · +0.12u · +0.01% ROI (research, excluded from live)

Hits Props OVER1-3-0 · -2.60u
Hits Props UNDER8-1-0 · +2.45u

Yesterday across live + shadow (total activity, not the official book): 10-6-0 · -0.49u (16 signals)

CLV yesterday (median primary)

Run Lines [active]n=3 · med +6.57% · mean +29.55%
Hits Props OVER [shadow]n=1 · med -52.78% · mean -52.78%
Hits Props UNDER [shadow]n=4 · med +0.71% · mean -1.05%

CLV last 7 days per model

Run Lines [active]n=19 · med +2.51% · mean +18.54%
Hits Props OVER [shadow]n=15 · med -51.38% · mean -32.83%
Hits Props UNDER [shadow]n=46 · med -1.44% · mean -17.87%
F5 Innings [shadow]n=11 · med -3.50% · mean -3.82%
ACTIVE 7d: n=19 · med +2.51% · mean +18.54%
SHADOW 7d: n=61 · med -5.57% · mean -21.55%

CLV all-time per model

Run Lines [active]n=91 · med +0.48% · mean +5.58%
Hits Props OVER [shadow]n=46 · med -19.30% · mean -26.04%
Hits Props UNDER [shadow]n=117 · med -1.10% · mean -16.06%
F5 Innings [shadow]n=41 · med -3.50% · mean -3.00%
ACTIVE all-time: n=91 · med +0.48% · mean +5.58%
SHADOW all-time: n=163 · med -2.36% · mean -18.88%

CLV is a process metric (entry vs close), not P&L. Median is the robust headline; mean is outlier-sensitive.

> 18-16-0 · -6.78u · -19.94% ROI — 34 picks graded on 2026-08-21. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

Yesterday's slate was a reminder that market efficiency often masks underlying volatility, as our 34 graded positions resulted in a 6.78-unit drawdown. Within the specific model breakdowns, the Run Lines finished 1-1-0 for a 0.39-unit loss, while Hits Props OVER went 5-5-0 for a 2.24-unit dip and the shadow Hits Props UNDER model landed 11-9-0 for a 4.06-unit loss. The F5 Innings model split the difference at 1-1-0, suffering a 0.09-unit loss. When looking at individual contests, the New York Mets–Chicago White Sox matchup provided a bright spot with a +0.61-unit win, whereas the Washington Nationals–Miami Marlins game moved against us for a 1.00-unit loss. The desk was surprised by the efficiency of the F5 Innings play on the Atlanta Braves–Milwaukee Brewers, which returned a 0.91-unit gain, contrasted sharply by the 1.00-unit loss incurred during the San Francisco Giants–Boston Red Sox contest.

Our projection engine was busy yesterday, processing 1365 player projections across 15 games and 273 participants, with the largest average deltas concentrated in total bases at -0.75 and hits at -0.45. Regarding our broader performance metrics, the portfolio currently sits at 469 picks with a 4.65-unit gain and a 0.99% ROI. This stands in stark contrast to the strength seen seven days prior, where 219 picks had generated a 25.52-unit gain and an 11.65% ROI. We are currently navigating a daily net loss streak of two. As for market positioning, our closing line value remains robust, with yesterday's 17 graded plays featuring closing data averaging a +38.19% CLV, while our week-to-date average stands at +23.46%.

Looking toward today's 15-game slate, our model activity has tightened, generating one signal for the Run Lines and five signals for the Hits Props OVER category. We are tracking 1350 projections across the full schedule, providing the necessary depth for parlay builders and stat lovers alike. Our primary run-line focus is the Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 at the New York Yankees, currently available at +172 on FanDuel; additional run-line interest lives on the Signal Board. We approach the day with a focus on disciplined execution, keeping our projections and signal counts in lockstep as we look to reverse the current trend.

Dig Deeper

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

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