Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Aug 23, 2026
8 signals graded, 5-3-0 record, +12.25% ROI, +0.98u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.
Performance Snapshot
All models incl. shadow · 1103 graded signals · 713-374-16 · +37.49u · Live-promoted: 326 · 202-124-0 · +33.21u · updated at build time (PG)
Cumulative units equity curve (live models)
Cumulative units by model
Live / Shadow / Total + CLV breakdown
Live models — official book
LIVE 106-59-0 · +37.37u · +22.65% ROI (165 signals, all-time)
Shadow research (excluded from the live book)
Shadow all-time: 607-315-16 · +0.12u · +0.01% ROI (research, excluded from live)
Yesterday across live + shadow (total activity, not the official book): 10-6-0 · -0.49u (16 signals)
CLV yesterday (median primary)
CLV last 7 days per model
CLV all-time per model
CLV is a process metric (entry vs close), not P&L. Median is the robust headline; mean is outlier-sensitive.
> 5-3-0 · +0.98u · 12.25% ROI — 8 LIVE signals graded on 2026-08-22. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.
Shadow research (not official portfolio): 21-7-0 · +2.09u. Total portfolio (all lanes): 26-10-0 · +3.07u.
Yesterday's slate demonstrated the volatility inherent in market-based modeling. Our live Run Lines¹³ portfolio navigated the Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees matchup for a 1.72-unit gain. Run Lines delivered a yesterday median CLV¹ of +18.26% (7-day: +2.19%; all-time: +1.36%). The Hits Props⁴ OVER category faced resistance, finishing 4-3-0 for a 0.74-unit loss with yesterday median CLV of -28.57% (7-day: -0.72%; all-time: -14.64%).
Our shadow models track Hits Props UNDER and F5⁵ innings. The former provided a 4.09-unit boost. The latter struggled, including a loss on Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, resulting in yesterday shadow median CLV for F5 innings of +450.00% (7-day: -350.00%; all-time: -325.00%).
Across all lanes: LIVE models⁷ sit at 145-110-1 (+5.37u, 2.10% ROI). SHADOW models sit at 215-109-2 (+0.23u, 0.07% ROI). TOTAL portfolio⁷ (live + shadow) sits at 360-219-3 (+5.60u, 0.99% ROI).
The projection engine processed 1365 player projections across 15 games. We graded 273 players for accuracy by comparing expected output against the final stat line. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by a mean absolute error⁸ of 0.2 hits. Yesterday, 269 of 273 graded hitters matched our expectations, maintaining a mean absolute error of 0.70 hits. 81.8% of results fell within one hit of the target. Our models are capturing baseline performance, providing a reliable floor for daily research despite occasional variance in high-volatility categories.
Today's slate features 15 games. Our models generated 3 signals for Run Lines and 6 signals for Hits Props OVER. The projection suite covers 272 entries each for hits, total bases, home runs, RBIs, and strikeouts. We've identified Los Angeles Angels +1.5 at Texas Rangers as a primary run-line candidate at a best price of -160 via LowVig.ag. Everything else lives on the Signal Board.
Dig Deeper
Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk
Definitions
- ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
- ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
- ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
- ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
- ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
- ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
- ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
- ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.
Game recaps published for this date
- Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles — final 1–3 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees — final 8–3 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins — final 6–2 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals — final 11–7 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers — final 5–3 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres — final 8–1 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
- Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers — final 2–4 (settled recap) (2026-08-23)
Every game a published signal covered, graded to its settled record — full recap archive · public ledger.
Blog posts are public education. The app has Research, signals, and Ask Signal.
Open the App Read the MethodologyAll figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.