Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 02, 2026

8 signals graded, 4-4-0 record, -11.88% ROI, -0.95u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 4-4-0 · -0.95u · -11.88% ROI — 8 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-01. Ledger updated daily.

8 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Tuesday was a split. The run line³ model went 2-1, returning 1.27 units on three bets. Miami at Kansas City was the standout — the Marlins dog at +1.5 cashed for 1.65 units. San Francisco at Pittsburgh grabbed another 0.62 units. New York at Tampa Bay dropped a unit. CLV¹ on run lines showed a median of +1.15% and mean of +25.72% (outlier-sensitive, though the median provides context). Seven-day CLV for run lines sits at median -0.61%, mean +1.50%. The entry price advantage is holding.

Hits props OVER⁴ went 2-3, losing 2.22 units. The model misfired on the Toronto at Cleveland matchup, which accounted for a full unit of the loss. Seven-day CLV on this lane shows a headwind: median -4.31%, mean -23.21%. We are closing into poor prices and the results reflected it. Combined LIVE CLV across price lanes over seven days: median -1.44%, mean -8.68%. Yesterday's projection engine covered 1,410 player projections across 15 games and 282 players. Largest average deltas² by category: total bases down 0.73, hits down 0.45.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Yesterday it went 23-13 across two lanes — hits props UNDER and F5⁵ innings — but dropped 2.65 units. The hits UNDER lane posted 22-13 but leaked 3.56 units, with median CLV of +0.67% on 10 settled bets. The F5 model grabbed 0.91 units on a single bet, with -4.50 runs of line movement. Seven-day shadow CLV across price lanes: median flat, mean -7.49%. All-time shadow CLV: median -0.06%, mean -11.96%.

Portfolio trend against seven days prior: we are at 815 signals, up 33.81 units at 4.15% ROI⁶. Seven days ago we sat at 619 signals, up 40.39 units at 6.52% ROI. The book gave back 6.58 units over the week. Current streak: L1.

How the Projection Engine Did

The engine published 1,410 projections yesterday. Mean absolute error⁸ and hit-rate data were not supplied, but the delta breakdown is instructive. Total bases projections ran 0.73 below realized performance on average. Hits projections ran 0.45 low. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by 0.2. Yesterday the model undershot systematically.

Parlay builders who leaned on our projections for unders may have found value. DFS players stacking overs faced tougher conditions. The delta direction provides context when deciding which side of a line to take.

Today's Card

Wednesday's slate runs 15 games. Run lines generated three signals. Hits props OVER generated zero. The Athletics at +1.5 against the Texas Rangers is a Kelly-positive run-line candidate — best price lives at FanDuel, -160. Two additional Kelly-positive run-line candidates live on the Signal Board. The engine published 1,355 projections across today's 15 games — research for parlay builders, DFS players, and those identifying edges in the market.

What This Means

CLV is a process metric, not a results metric. Closing into good prices does not guarantee wins, but closing into bad prices indicates a long-term headwind. The run-line lane is identifying structural edges and entering at favorable prices. The hits props OVER lane is not. Median CLV indicates whether the model is identifying market inefficiencies or chasing moves already priced in.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.