Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 11, 2026

3 signals graded, 1-2-0 record, -11.33% ROI, -0.34u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-2-0 · -0.34u · -11.33% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-10. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Thursday was a split card that exposed the variance in small samples. Our run-line³ model went 1-2 on three published signals, dropping 0.34 units against a five-game slate. The Pittsburgh Pirates covered +1.5 at the Chicago White Sox for a 1.66-unit return. The Colorado Rockies fell short at the New York Yankees, and the Tampa Bay Rays couldn't hold the line at the Atlanta Braves. Both favorites covered -1.5. The model misfired on two of three. The closing line value¹ suggested a median CLV of +6.57% and a mean of +29.55% — an entry-price advantage that did not translate to results in a three-signal sample. Over the last seven days the run-line book carries a median CLV of +2.51%, mean of +18.54% across 19 signals. Those gaps between median and mean flag outlier movement. Process holds.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money, and Thursday's shadow portfolio went 9-4 across 13 signals. Hits props⁴ UNDER ran 8-1, producing 2.45 units with median CLV of +0.71%. Hits props OVER went 1-3, losing 2.60 units on a single Houston-Philadelphia contest that cleared the projection threshold but not the price bar. The seven-day shadow CLV paints a consistent picture: median -5.57%, mean -21.55% across 61 price-lane signals. Research candidates that clear projection bars but fail price gates generate data. That's the design.

Cumulative LIVE⁷ portfolio stands at 106-59-0, up 37.37 units at 22.65% ROI across 165 signals. Shadow research sits at 607-315-16, up 0.12 units across 938 graded frameworks. Total activity across all lanes: 10-6-0 yesterday, 713-374-16 lifetime. The ledger moved from 29.93 units seven days prior to 37.49 units today — a 7.56-unit gain on 214 new signals. Current streak: L1 on daily net.

How the Projection Engine Did

The engine covered 455 player projections across Thursday's five-game slate — 91 hitters, 91 projection sets. The largest deltas ran negative: total bases averaged -0.34 off observed outcomes, strikeouts -0.21. Negative systematic delta² points to the engine running slightly high on power categories. We track these gaps to tune the level over time. The projection engine exists to price the market and surface structural mispricings — parlay builders and DFS players use these projections to identify correlation and leverage points. A -0.34 mean delta on total bases over 91 players is within tolerance for a one-day sample.

Today's Card

Friday brings a 15-game slate. The run-line model generated three signals. Hits props OVER generated zero — the gate held. Best run-line candidate: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 at Milwaukee Brewers, best price BetRivers at -162. Two additional Kelly-positive run-line candidates cleared the framework. The rest — including all shadow research — lives on the Signal Board. The engine published 1,350 projections across 15 games — research for parlay builders, DFS players, and anyone building correlation maps.

What This Means

CLV is a process metric that measures entry price against closing market consensus. Positive median CLV over meaningful samples suggests the model identifies mispricings before the broader market does. Results variance in small samples is noise. The ledger accumulates signal.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions:

• CLV¹ (Closing Line Value): difference between entry price and closing market price, expressed as percentage or line movement
• delta²: difference between projected and observed outcome
• run line³: MLB spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs
• hits props⁴: over/under market on batter hit total
• F5⁵: first five innings market
• ROI/units⁶: return on investment; standardized profit measure (1 unit = 1% of bankroll)
• LIVE/SHADOW/total⁷: official published signals / research frameworks / combined activity
• mean absolute error⁸: average magnitude of projection misses, regardless of direction

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.