Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 06, 2026

3 signals graded, 2-1-0 record, +46.00% ROI, +1.38u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> Ledger summary

2-1-0 · +1.38u · 46.0% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-05. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.
Shadow research (not official portfolio): 18-9-0 · -1.30u. Total portfolio (all lanes): 20-10-0 · +0.08u.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Saturday's 15-game slate delivered a split verdict. The run-line³ model went 2-1 across three matchups and returned 1.38 units. Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Cleveland Guardians cashed at +0.62u. New York Yankees +1.5 at San Diego Padres delivered the day's best result at +1.75u. The lone loss came on Atlanta Braves +1.5 at Philadelphia Phillies, which dropped 1.00u. The three-signal sample posted a median CLV¹ of +2.32% — a clean entry relative to closing price — though the mean of +28.73% reflects one extreme outlier. Over the last seven days, run lines show a median CLV of -0.98% with a mean of +6.44% across 21 signals. The cumulative live portfolio now stands at 193-119-0, up 29.60 units at a 9.49% ROI across 312 signals.

Hits props OVER⁴ published nothing yesterday — the gate held. Shadow exists to test frameworks, and yesterday it threw two contradictory signals. Hits props OVER (research) — the price-gated candidates that didn't clear the board threshold — went 1-7 and dropped 6.57 units. That lane posted a median CLV of -50.07%, indicating entry after significant value had burned off. Compare that to hits props UNDER in shadow, which ran 16-1 and returned 5.36 units with a median CLV of -6.51%. The divergence between those two lanes points to a structural pattern in how the market prices totals vs unders. F5 innings⁵ research went 1-1, down 0.09u. The cumulative shadow portfolio sits at 427-223-5, down 3.14 units at a -0.48% ROI across 655 signals.

Seven days ago the total portfolio stood at 722 signals and +27.55u. Today it's 967 signals and +26.46u. ROI compressed from 3.82% to 2.74% as volume scaled. We're up one daily net unit on the current streak.

How the Projection Engine Did

The engine published 1,350 player projections across yesterday's 15 games, covering 270 hitters. Mean absolute error⁸ measures how far each projection missed the actual outcome. Yesterday's MAE isn't supplied in the data block, but the delta² direction is clear: total bases ran -0.47 and hits ran -0.29. That's a systematic lean toward the under — our model projected more offense than the games delivered. In practice, if you're building same-game parlays or DFS lineups off our projections, you're working with a baseline that skewed optimistic yesterday. The engine recalibrates nightly based on settled results, so today's 1,350 projections reflect that correction.

Today's Card

Sunday brings another 15-game slate. The run-line model generated three signals. The board published one: Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Cleveland Guardians with a best price of -160 at Bovada. The rest — including two additional Kelly-positive run-line candidates and all shadow research — lives on the Signal Board. Hits props OVER published zero signals; the price bar continues to hold. The projection engine covers all 15 games with 1,350 updated player lines, built for parlay constructors and DFS grinders who want a second opinion on the consensus.

What This Means

CLV¹ is a process metric, not a scoreboard. It measures whether we entered before or after the sharp money moved the line. Positive CLV means we beat the market to the number. Negative CLV means we bought after the value compressed. Yesterday's run-line median of +2.32% signals clean entry timing. The shadow OVER research at -50.07% median CLV is a red flag — we are chasing steam, not finding it. That's why those candidates stay off the live board until the entry price improves.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.