Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 07, 2026

3 signals graded, 1-2-0 record, -46.00% ROI, -1.38u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> Ledger summary

1-2-0 · -1.38u · -46.0% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-06. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.
Shadow research (not official portfolio): 23-5-0 · +6.05u. Total portfolio (all lanes): 24-7-0 · +4.67u.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Sunday's LIVE card consisted entirely of run lines³. Three signals across three contests. One win, two losses. San Francisco Giants +1.5 against the New York Mets graded a loss. Minnesota Twins +1.5 at the Chicago White Sox graded a loss. Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Cleveland Guardians salvaged 0.62 units. Net: -1.38 units on the day.

The CLV¹ on those three signals told a different story than the scoreboard. Median entry was +0.48% ahead of close, mean +1.20%. Both metrics indicate we bought at better prices than settled, but price advantage does not guarantee outcomes in small samples.

Hits Props OVER⁴ generated zero signals yesterday. The gate held, and no card cleared the price bar.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Sunday's Shadow activity was the mirror opposite of the LIVE card. Hits Props UNDER went 16-4-0, producing +3.10 units. The research-lane Hits Props OVER candidates — price or cap-gated, graded off the public board — returned 5-1-0 for +1.13 units. F5 Innings⁵ added 2-0-0 for +1.82 units, including a +0.91-unit win on Angels at Pirates.

Combined Shadow CLV showed a similar trend: median entry -2.65% over the past seven days, mean -21.65%. The mean reflects the outlier-sensitive drag of steep closes in certain prop lanes. That structural pattern has persisted across the Shadow portfolio since inception.

The projection engine covered 270 player projections across 15 games yesterday. Mean absolute error⁸ and percentage within one hit are not supplied for Sunday's card, so we track only directional delta². Largest average deltas ran negative: total bases lagged by 0.48, hits by 0.29. If you built parlays or DFS lineups using our projections as a floor, you encountered a Sunday where actual outcomes ran cooler than model expectations. That is the nature of probabilistic forecasting over 15-game samples.

Cumulative LIVE portfolio now sits at 194-121-0, +28.22 units, 8.96% ROI across 315 signals. Shadow research — excluded from the official book — stands at 450-228-5, +2.92 units, 0.43% ROI across 683 signals. Total activity (all lanes combined, reference only): 644-349-5, +31.14 units, 3.12% ROI across 998 signals. Seven days prior, that total sat at 753 signals, +30.23 units, 4.01% ROI. Current streak: two consecutive days of positive net units despite Sunday's LIVE result.

How the Projection Engine Did

The engine produced 270 projections across 15 games Sunday. Without MAE or within-one figures for this card, we lean on delta direction. Total bases averaged -0.48 per player, hits averaged -0.29. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by 0.2 — and on Sunday, the model ran high across the slate. Not a catastrophic gap, but a low-variance day where real outcomes trailed the model's baseline.

Parlay builders who used our projections as a floor likely saw more unders hit than expected. DFS players stacking high-projection hitters faced a slate where the ceiling plays underperformed.

Process remains: we build projections from park factors, pitcher matchups, and recent form, then publish the full matrix before lineups lock. The delta feedback loop adjusts the baseline for subsequent slates.

Today's Card

Monday brings 11 games. Run Lines generated 2 signals. Hits Props OVER generated zero — the gate held again. The single named candidate: Minnesota Twins +1.5 at Detroit Tigers, best price DraftKings +164. The rest — including all Shadow research — lives on the Signal Board.

Today's projection engine covers 198 player projections across those 11 games, providing research for parlay builders, DFS players, and anyone who wants to see how the model grades every hitter before first pitch.

What This Means

CLV is a process metric, not a guarantee. Sunday's LIVE card bought at better prices than close but still lost units. That is variance in a three-signal sample. The seven-day median on active lanes sits at +0.37% — buying ahead of the market more often than not. The work continues.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.