Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 12, 2026

3 signals graded, 1-2-0 record, -46.00% ROI, -1.38u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-2-0 · -1.38u · -46.0% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-11. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Friday brought a 15-game slate and the run-line³ model misfired. Three signals graded. One hit, two missed. The Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5 at Washington for 0.62 units. The New York Mets failed to cover +1.5 against the Yankees, and Cincinnati could not hold +1.5 at Milwaukee. Net: -1.38 units on the day.

Yesterday's CLV¹ came in at median +2.91%, mean -0.48% across the three trades. The median held steady, but the mean shows one outlier dragged the average negative. Over the past seven days, the run-line lane has posted median +2.77% CLV with a mean of +17.52% across 20 signals. That gap between median and mean flags potential large movers. All-time, the lane sits at median +0.65%, mean +5.39% across 94 signals. We entered at favorable prices. The games did not cooperate.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Friday's shadow activity ran 8-10 across two hits props⁴ lanes. Hits Props OVER went 2-3, dropping 2.09 units. Hits Props UNDER went 6-7, losing 3.89 units. Shadow CLV indicates a structural issue. Hits Props OVER posted median -56.71%, mean -38.22% yesterday. We are entering those markets after adverse movement. The UNDER lane showed median -27.19%, mean -26.45%. Seven-day CLV for OVER sits at median -51.30%, and UNDER at median -2.63%. The OVER lane is experiencing unfavorable entry prices. We are tracking this. We are not running it live.

The projection engine covered 273 players across the 15-game slate, delivering 1,365 projections. The largest average deltas² pointed to total bases (-0.32) and hits (-0.19). When the engine projects a hitter for 1.2 total bases and he finishes with 0.9, that is a miss of 0.3. Negative deltas in total bases suggest the engine overestimated offensive output Friday.

Cumulative picture: 107-61-0 on live signals since inception, up 35.99 units at 21.42% ROI across 168 trades. Seven days ago, the system sat at 1,090 signals, up 26.03 units at 2.82% ROI. Today we are at 1,111 signals, up 30.13 units at 2.71% ROI. That is a gain of 4.10 units over the past week despite Friday's loss. Current streak: down two days in a row on daily net.

How the Projection Engine Did

Friday's projection engine has not yet been graded with the new era-aware scoreboard. We are rolling out a research framework that measures per-category LEVEL — whether the engine is setting the right overall rate — and skill versus baseline, which compares projections to each player's season average. When that data populates, you will see it here. For now, we track deltas and MAE⁸. The mean absolute error⁸ measures how far projections land from actual results on average. If we project 1.2 hits and the player records 1, that projection missed by 0.2. Aggregate those misses across all players and you get the MAE. Tighter MAE helps parlay builders assess the projection floor. DFS players use it to monitor pricing.

Today's Card

Saturday brings another 15-game slate. The run-line model generated 2 signals. Hits Props OVER generated zero. The projection engine will cover 1,350 player projections across the slate. One run-line candidate cleared the Kelly bar and the price gate: Houston Astros +1.5 at Tampa Bay Rays, best price -165 at LowVig.ag. The rest — including all shadow research — lives on the Signal Board.

What This Means

Closing line value¹ measures whether we are finding edge before the market does. Results measure whether we got paid. Friday we got one of two. The ledger stays honest. The process stays sharp.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.