Expected value
EV is the whole game in one formula: probability × what you win − (1 − probability) × what you lose. Everything else — sizing, CLV, the ledger — is downstream of it.
Result
Read it with the price lens: at −110 you must win 52.4% of the time. A 55%
true probability is +EV at −110 and −EV at −150 — the same event, priced differently, is a different
bet. Same accuracy, half the reward walks through
exactly that on our own lanes.
Next: convert a positive EV into a stake with the Kelly sizing guide.
Want this applied to tonight's graded research? Every number on the live board traces to the published ledger.See this on the board →