Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 13, 2026

2 signals graded, 1-1-0 record, -19.50% ROI, -0.39u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-1-0 · -0.39u · -19.50% ROI — 2 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-12. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

2 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Saturday's 15-game slate produced a split on the LIVE run-line³ model. Houston Astros +1.5 at Tampa Bay Rays cleared at +0.61 units. Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 at Atlanta Braves lost a full unit. Net 0.39 units gone. CLV¹ on those two board signals: median +38.67%, mean +38.67%. The data indicates favorable entry pricing relative to close. Over the last seven days, the run-line model has posted a median CLV of +2.91% across 19 signals, with the mean sitting at +17.98% — the gap suggests a handful of large outliers pulling the average up. All-time, the model runs at median +0.88%, mean +6.08% across 96 signals. Cumulative LIVE performance: 108-62-0, +35.60 units, +20.94% ROI across 170 signals.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Yesterday's shadow lanes went 21-11-0, net -1.54 units across 32 signals. Hits Props OVER ran 4-1, returned +0.82 units. Hits Props UNDER went 16-6, posted +0.73 units. F5 Innings⁵ took the hardest hit: 1-4, -3.09 units, including a full-unit loss on San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants. CLV on the shadow lanes remains negative: Hits Props OVER median -49.61% yesterday, -51.08% over seven days. Hits Props UNDER median -8.22% yesterday, -5.57% over seven days. F5 median line movement -4.00 runs yesterday, -4.00 runs over seven days. Shadow cumulative: 636-336-18, -7.40 units, -0.75% ROI across 990 signals. Total portfolio activity yesterday: 22-12-0, -1.93 units across 34 signals.

The projection engine covered 272 players across the 15-game slate, generating 1360 projections. Largest average deltas² by category: total bases trailed actual by 0.29, strikeouts by 0.20. Seven days ago the portfolio sat at 952 signals, +26.10 units, 2.74% ROI. As of Saturday: 1145 signals, +28.20 units, 2.46% ROI. The delta: +193 signals, +2.10 units, ROI compression of 28 basis points. Current streak: three straight days of net loss. The LIVE book remains profitable. The shadow research continues testing price and framework boundaries.

How the Projection Engine Did

The projection scoreboard is temporarily offline for this report. When available, it tracks engine-level metrics — how well the model sets overall rates versus actual outcomes, and whether projections outperform baseline player season averages. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by 0.2. The mean absolute error⁸ aggregates those misses. This is a research scoreboard. In practice, parlay builders and DFS players use the projections to identify structural mismatches between our numbers and market lines. The projections are a tool for independent research.

Today's Card

Sunday brings another 15-game slate. The run-line model generated three signals. Hits Props OVER generated zero. The engine published 1350 projections covering all 15 games — research for parlay builders, DFS players, and anyone hunting structural mismatches. Of the Kelly-positive run-line candidates, the desk highlights Baltimore Orioles +1.5 at Toronto Blue Jays, best price -165 at LowVig.ag. The rest — including all shadow research and two additional run-line candidates — lives on the Signal Board.

What This Means

CLV is a process metric, not a scoreboard stat. Favorable entry pricing may compound over hundreds of signals. The LIVE run-line model has captured median positive CLV all-time, and that structural edge is reflected in the +35.60-unit result.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

CLV¹ (Closing Line Value) — difference between entry price and closing price, expressed as percentage. Positive CLV indicates entry before the market moved in the projected direction. Median is the robust center; mean is pulled by outliers.

Delta² — the gap between projection and actual outcome.

Run line³ — baseball spread, typically ±1.5 runs.

Hits props⁴ — player prop bets on total hits recorded.

F5⁵ — first five innings, a contained market less exposed to bullpen variance.

ROI/units⁶ — return on investment (percentage) and absolute profit/loss in standardized betting units.

LIVE/SHADOW/total⁷ — LIVE is the published board record (official portfolio performance). SHADOW is research tracked separately to validate new models before they go live. TOTAL combines both for full system activity.

Mean absolute error⁸ — average size of projection misses, unsigned. If projections miss by 0.3 hits on average, MAE is 0.3.

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.