Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 14, 2026

3 signals graded, 0-3-0 record, -100.00% ROI, -3.00u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 0-3-0 · -3.00u · -100.0% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-13. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Sunday brought a full sweep against the live run-line³ model. All three signals — Colorado Rockies +1.5 at Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals +1.5 at Boston Red Sox, and Baltimore Orioles +1.5 at Toronto Blue Jays — closed as losses. The model misfired and we absorbed the full 3.00 units. The entry prices were not sharp: median closing line value¹ of -6.06% across the three signals indicates we entered behind the closing consensus. Over the past seven days, the run-line model has fared better — median CLV of +3.07% across 19 signals — but yesterday was an outlier.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money, and yesterday it posted 19 graded signals across four lanes. Hits Props OVER went 5-1, returning 1.23 units on a single published signal. Hits Props UNDER went 13-6 for -0.53 units across eight published signals, with median CLV of -35.88% — results against poor entry prices suggest structural issues in the underlying projection edge. F5 Innings⁵ split 1-1, dropping 0.09 units. The projection engine covered 1,370 player lines across 15 games and 274 players yesterday, feeding both the prop frameworks and the parlay builders who use the platform for research.

Seven days ago the total portfolio sat at +30.78 units across 983 signals. Today it stands at +20.54 units across 1,187 signals — a ten-unit pullback over four consecutive losing days. The live book has dropped from cumulative +35.60 units to +32.60 units in that window. ROI⁶ compressed from 3.13% to 1.73%. The current streak is L4 on net daily units. None of this changes the process; it is simply the recorded outcome.

How the Projection Engine Did

Yesterday the engine set 1,370 projections across 274 players in 15 games. The largest average deltas² by category were total bases at -0.39 and strikeouts at -0.26 — meaning actual outcomes ran slightly below projection in those buckets. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by 0.2. Aggregate that across hundreds of players and you get mean absolute error⁸, which tells us how tight the engine's aim is on average. Parlay builders and DFS constructors who layer projections into their stacks are working from a model that sets the general rate, though it will miss individual outcomes. The goal is to outperform the baseline across volume.

Today's Card

Monday's slate drops to 10 games after Sunday's full card. The run-line model generated three signals. The best Kelly-positive candidate is Atlanta Braves +1.5 at Chicago Cubs, with the sharpest price at LowVig.ag (-170). Two additional run-line candidates cleared the Kelly bar and live on the paid Signal Board. The projection engine will cover roughly 900 player lines across the 10-game slate — research for parlay builders, DFS players, and anyone building a stat-driven angle into tonight's card. The rest — including all shadow research — lives on the Signal Board.

What This Means

Closing line value is a process metric, not a guarantee of results. Yesterday the live model entered behind the market and lost three straight. Over the past week it entered ahead of the closing consensus and still gave back units. The seven-day median CLV of +3.07% means the model is finding structural edges; yesterday was an exception, and we state it plainly because the ledger does.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• CLV¹ (Closing Line Value): gap between entry price and closing price, shown as median (robust central measure) and mean (outlier-sensitive). Positive CLV means we entered ahead of the market's final consensus.
• Delta²: difference between projected and actual outcome (e.g., projected 1.5 hits, actual 2 hits = +0.5 delta).
• Run line³: MLB spread market, typically ±1.5 runs.
• Hits props⁴: over/under markets on batter hit totals.
• F5⁵: first-five-innings markets (starting pitcher duel, bullpen excluded).
• ROI/units⁶: return on investment (net units / total risked); one unit = one standard bet size.
• LIVE/SHADOW/total⁷: LIVE = official published portfolio; SHADOW = research/validation models tracked separately; TOTAL = all lanes combined for transparency.
• Mean absolute error⁸: average miss size across all projections, unsigned (measures accuracy, not bias).

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.