Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 15, 2026

3 signals graded, 2-1-0 record, +4.67% ROI, +0.14u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> Ledger summary

2-1-0 · +0.14u · 4.67% ROI — 3 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-14. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.
Shadow research (not official portfolio): 13-8-0 · -0.96u. Total portfolio (all lanes): 15-9-0 · -0.82u.

3 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Monday brought a ten-game slate and three run-line³ signals that went 2-1-0 for 0.14 units. San Francisco Giants +1.5 at St. Louis Cardinals cleared at +0.56 units. Chicago White Sox +1.5 at Cleveland Guardians delivered another win at +0.57 units. Atlanta Braves +1.5 at Chicago Cubs dropped the full unit. The model captured the structure on two of three.

Closing line value¹ yesterday sat at median -0.20%, mean -1.02% across the three signals. Neutral in a small sample. Over seven days, the run-line model has captured median CLV of +1.82%, mean +8.71% across twenty signals. All-time, the model holds median +0.48%, mean +5.56% over 102 signals. That long-term edge persists even when individual days chop.

Shadow exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Yesterday's shadow research ran 13-8-0 for -0.96 units across three lanes. Hits Props OVER went 2-2-0, dropped 1.06 units. Hits Props UNDER went 9-6-0, down 1.72 units despite a 60% hit rate. F5 Innings⁵ grabbed the only clean win: Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays under 5.5 runs returned 0.91 units.

The shadow CLV yesterday was rough. Hits Props UNDER median sat at -2.50%, mean -20.25%. Over seven days, shadow price lanes show median -7.07%, mean -22.44%. That gap between strong results and poor entry price points to a structural pattern we are working to decode. The research portfolio remains research.

The projection engine covered 905 player projections across ten games and 181 players. Total bases ran cold by an average of -0.50 per player, strikeouts by -0.32. The engine provides data for parlay builders and DFS players who want to see where our model sets the line before the market does.

Seven days ago, the full portfolio stood at 1,006 signals and +33.30 units at 3.31% ROI. Today it sits at 1,211 signals and +19.71 units at 1.63% ROI. Five straight days of net losses. Process over scoreboard. The model has not changed; the edge persists in the long-term CLV.

How the Projection Engine Did

No player projection scoreboard data settled for yesterday. The engine's research framework continues to track level and skill against baseline, but those metrics require a full slate cycle to compute reliably.

If you are building parlays or loading DFS lineups, the projections give you a pre-market anchor. They are not betting signals. They are research. The gap between our projected line and the market's opening line is where the interesting questions start.

Today's Card

Tuesday brings fifteen games. Run Lines generated one signal: Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Toronto Blue Jays, best price MyBookie.ag at -175. That is the only public-board candidate that cleared the price gate. The rest — including all shadow research — lives on the Signal Board.

The engine published 1,350 projections across the fifteen-game slate. If you are building parlays or running DFS lineups, those projections are live now.

What This Means

Closing line value¹ is a process metric, not a scoreboard. The run-line model has captured positive CLV over seven days and all-time. That edge compounds over hundreds of signals, not three. The shadow research exists to stress-test frameworks before they touch the live book. Losses are stated plainly. No spin.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions:

• CLV¹ (Closing Line Value): the percentage gap between your entry price and the market's closing price. Positive CLV means you beat the close. It's a process metric, not profit.
• Run line³: MLB spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• F5 Innings⁵: first five innings total, isolating starting pitchers from bullpen variance.
• ROI/units⁶: return on investment. One unit = one standardized bet size. ROI = (units won or lost) / (total units risked).
• LIVE/SHADOW/total⁷: LIVE is the official published portfolio. Shadow is research/validation before frameworks go live. Total combines both for transparency.

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.