Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 16, 2026

1 signals graded, 1-0-0 record, +57.00% ROI, +0.57u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-0-0 · +0.57u · 57.0% ROI — 1 LIVE signal graded on 2026-09-15. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

1 signal settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Tuesday delivered a single LIVE run-line³ signal: Detroit Tigers +1.5 at Toronto Blue Jays. The dog covered, returning 0.57 units. Entry was -1.06% CLV¹ — a hair below close. Over the last seven days, Run Lines have built a median CLV of +1.03%, with a mean of +9.12% — that gap suggests closing prices moved in our favor, but a few extreme line shifts are pulling the mean. Across the entire 103-signal LIVE history, the median sits at +0.48%, with a mean of +5.49%. We are entering where the market ends up, which is a process edge that may compound over volume.

Shadow research graded 36 signals yesterday across three lanes. Hits Props OVER went 5-3, dropping 0.64 units. Hits Props UNDER went 17-8, dropping 0.39 units. F5⁵ Innings went 2-1, returning 0.82 units. Shadow exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Hits Props UNDER has graded 151 signals all-time at a median CLV of -1.42% but a mean of -17.25%. That spread is structural — the model is firing before props tighten, but not early enough to avoid the worst of the closing moves. The OVER lane is worse: median -10.03%, mean -25.78% across 55 signals. Both lanes stay parked in Shadow until the CLV problem is addressed.

Portfolio trend: as of 2026-09-15, 1,248 signals graded across all lanes have returned 20.06 units at 1.61% ROI⁶. Seven days prior, the figure was 36.84 units at 3.57% ROI across 1,033 signals. The ROI compressed as volume scaled — expected behavior when adding Shadow research lanes that are still in validation. LIVE portfolio cumulative: 1-0-0, +0.57 units, 57.0% ROI across 1 signal. Current streak: W1.

How the Projection Engine Did

Yesterday the engine published 1,355 player projections across 15 games and 271 players. We do not yet have the engine ERA or level scoreboard for Tuesday's card — that research pipeline is still building. When it lands, we will report whether the engine is setting the right overall rate and how much better than each player's season average we are projecting. For now, the delta² figures show the largest average misses by category: total bases ran -0.39 (projections too high), strikeouts ran -0.25 (projections too high). If you built a same-game parlay or DFS lineup off these projections, you were likely leaning into hitters who underperformed their offensive baseline and pitchers who missed their K rates. Useful information for tomorrow's card.

Today's Card

Wednesday's slate runs 15 games. Run Lines generated two signals. Hits Props OVER generated zero. The engine published 1,350 projections across the card — research for parlay builders, DFS players, and anyone who wants to compare our projection against the market's implied line. The single named run-line candidate: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 at New York Mets, best price -165 at LowVig.ag. The rest — including one additional Kelly-positive run-line candidate and all Shadow research — lives on the Signal Board.

What This Means

CLV is a process metric, not a profit promise. Median +1.03% over the last seven days on Run Lines means we are entering where the market closes half the time. That edge is intended to compound over hundreds of signals.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.